ISSN 2414-3820 , , 2015, . 45, . 189 631.539.3 . . , ., - . , . . , ., . . , . , , alfogor@i.ua . c , , . . , ., - . , . . , ., . . , . , . c , , . , . , . - . , . . . , . , ' , , . . [1]. , )(tx - t . ___________ © . . , . . , 2015 ISSN 2414-3820 , , 2015, . 45, . 190 x , . )(tx , [1], : 0 1 dxxf dxt xf dtx tf x o x o t o , (1) t xf – ; x tf – - ; 0 dxxf x o – t = 0. x , ' , constx p , (1) , dxt xf dxt xf dt d x tf x o x o . (2) (2) ' . t xf , (2) . )(tx , . bb ta x ta x ta b t xf )( exp )()( 1 , (3) )(ta tta )( , constb , (2) [1], , : bb t x t x t b x tf pp exp . (4) ISSN 2414-3820 , , 2015, . 45, . 191 (4) : - b t x tR pexp1)( ; (5) - b xT 11 1 p ; (6) - - b xt 1 p 1 1ln 1 . (7) (5), (6) (7) : , b . )(tx . n ' : nitx ii ...,,2,1,, . x t , . t xf x tf [2]. n i i i n i i i x tft xfbL 11 lnln,, . (8) , b (8). , . , t tx tt xf 2 0 2 0 2 exp 2 . (9) (2), - t xt tt xt x tf 2 0 2 0 2 exp 22 , 10) : ISSN 2414-3820 , , 2015, . 45, . 192 t xt FtR 0 01)( , (11) : p 2 2 0 p 21 1 xxT , (12) , - : 2 0 2 0425,0 1 UUt , (13) U – , . μ, 0 , (8). . . , . . , 9 (18 ) .1. 1 – / - . , / - . , 1 4649 14 10 4649 17 2 5422 48 11 5422 20 3 1177 5 12 1177 2 4 1817 13 13 1817 12 5 1512 6 14 1512 13 6 2156 27 15 2156 4 7 1901 30 16 1901 36 8 7680 35 17 7680 40 9 2105 17 18 2105 13 (8) « thcad» , : = 971; b = 1,524 = 1,26 - , μ = 73, = 0,92 0 = 2,96 - - . , , = 36 ., , . 1. ISSN 2414-3820 , , 2015, . 45, . 193 . tx1 1 x tf (t) 60 50 40 30 20 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 t, . - . × × × × × × × ××× × × × × × × × • • • • • • • • • tx2 2 x tf 1 x tf – , 2 x tf – - 1 – (5) , . 2. 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 R(t) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 t, . - . 2 – (6) (7) = 7460 - ., 80%- t80 = 3150 - . , (12) (13) = 6194 - . t80 = 2720 - . . , ' , . ' , , , , , , , , . ISSN 2414-3820 , , 2015, . 45, . 194 1. . . : , , [ ] / . . . – .: . . " ", 2012. – 259 . 2. Soong T.T., 2004, Fundamentals of Probability and Statistics for Engineers, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA. Oleksandr Grynchenko, Prof., DSc.,Olexsyi Alferov, Assos. Prof., PhD tech. sci. Kharkov national technical University of agriculture by P. Vasilenko, Kharkov, Ukraine Stochastic modeling tribotechnical degraded processes and forecasting reliability indices Providing focused on improving the reliability of transport equipment Ukrainian production design requires extensive use of simulation techniques and forecasting reliability. The article is an exposition of the method of stochastic modeling of processes of accumulation of mechanical damage in the elements of machines and forecasting based on this performance mechanical reliability. Feasibility reliability prediction requires data on the value of input parameters, statistical evaluation that can be performed through the use of discrete data with continuous monotonic random process. The practical significance of this method of modeling and forecasting of mechanical reliability for the design phase and tests of prototypes is built on the basis of the real statistics object model reliability will reflect the whole range of operational impacts and factors affecting the degradation processes and resource allocation. stochastic modeling, forecasting reliability, mechanical reliability 06.11.15 631.3.023 . . , ., - . , . . , . . , . . , . . , . , , ppopovich@ukr.net - . . . , , . . , ., - . , . . , . . , . . , . . , . , - . . . , , ___________ © . . , . . , . . , . . , 2015